As support for Bush's handling of the Iraq war plunges into true-believer territory, our President has decided to go forward with plans for a month-long vacation at his Texas ranch.  Having lived in McClennan County, Texas, I know how hot it can get on that ranch in August.  While Bush's Texas retreat may help distance himself personally from, in his words, the "grim reminder" of U.S. fatalities in Iraq, he won't be able to avoid the political heat from Republican congressmen.  Republican members of the House do not have the luxury to take month-long vacations.  2006 approaches, and as the more vulnerable GOP representatives go home to their districts, they won't like what they hear from their constituents regarding their party's leader.  As the OH-02 race demonstrated, even bedrock Republican voters are growing weary of this war.

The war will be a major factor in the 2006 midterm congressional races and could be one in the 2008 presidential race, said Stephen Cimbala, a Pennsylvania State University political scientist who has studied the impact of wars on American politics.

"If you look at it from a Republican point of view, by the 2006 congressional elections, you're going to want to have a timetable in place for withdrawal of U.S. forces and their replacement by Iraqis. And by the fall of 2008, you will want to have most U.S. forces out of there," Cimbala said.

When support for the war plummetted in June, Bush gave a prime-time address that in retrospect bought him some time with the public.  Now that time has almost run out, the public is growing restless, and the GOP congress will at first quietly begin to put some pressure on Bush for something at least resembling a timetable of withdrawal from Iraq.  But with Bush seemingly hell-bent on refusing to provide a timetable, expect especially the vulnerable Republicans to stay as far away from Bush as possible.

cross-posted at matty fred.

Republican Jean Schmidt (52%) narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett (48%) for the OH-02 Congressional seat.  In a district that ordinarily votes 70% GOP from the top of the ticket down, Hackett's strong showing at the polls is truly extraordinary.  So, how well does Hackett's strong showing bode for Democratic gains in '06?  Is this race a harbinger of a blue tide in '06, or was this race a once-in-a-blue-moon convergence of factors?